Analyst Predicts Solana Plunge to $13 Using Elliott Wave Theory

Van Lagen predicts Solana’s price could plummet to as low as $13. In his analysis, he uses Elliott Wave Theory to explain the patterns in the market price that have reoccurring features.

Elliott Wave Analysis

Lagen has analyzed Solana’s price action, beginning in 2021, which he stated was the tip of a big Elliot wave. He stated that this time has resulted in the conclusion of an upward movement that can be divided into five individual waves, the last of which indicated that a shift in direction was imminent.

In 2022, van Lagen pinpointed the beginning of the A-wave bear market, which is the first step of a long bear market. This A-wave in five sub-waves indicates the bearish trend in accordance with the Elliott Wave Theory because of the market indicators.

According to van Lagen, in 2023, he saw the development of the B-wave, a corrective movement within the bear market. This B-wave can also be divided into five sub-waves, following the Elliott Wave pattern for correction. Identifying this B-wave is important because it means that the overall trend, which is the downtrend, is not over, which means that more downward movement is expected.

Bearish Outlook for 2024

In 2024, van Lagen expects the C-wave to kick in, the last wave of a larger bear market cycle. This C-wave may be depicting the end of the bear market that Solana is experiencing.

Also, van Lagen points out that the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bearish divergence. This situation, where the price creates higher highs and the RSI does not, indicates a bullish momentum and trend shift.

A social media post from Van Lagen analyzing what he thinks is his short position on SOL shows that he is already positioning himself for the next drop. He further predicts that the perfect fifth wave was completed in 2021, and the year 2022 marked the beginning of the A-wave down, followed by the B-wave up in 2023 and the possibility of a C-wave down in 2024.

Risk and Market Sentiment

Despite being certain of his analysis, van Lagen understood the possible consequences of bearing a short position in Solana. It is what he terms as a 50/50 trade and bold. He emphasizes chart analysis as a way of making more rational decisions and not influenced by emotions. 

Moreover, while van Lagen uses the Elliott Wave Theory for his bearish forecast of Solana, he notes that the overall crypto market has often influenced the price of Bitcoin, hence, the concern for the correlation between Solana’s projected price drop and the possible increase in the price of Bitcoin.

As of this writing, Solana is at $159.17 with a 24-hour trading volume of $1,539,304,068, which shows a 0. 14% decrease within the last day, according to CoinMarketCap data.