Ripple Analysis: XRP Could Close 2022 With its Worse Performance in Four Years

Ripple kicked off the year with so much uncertainty. It was still battling the effects of the ongoing case against the SEC, many remain optimistic as to how prices will play out over the next 365 days.

One such prediction was a return to $1. Many believed that it could perform better. As a result, they placed expectations between $1.5 and $2. However, others were prepared for the worst.

They were looking forward to massive downtrends. Most speculated the end of the asset if the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) won the ongoing legal battle. One such individual was a former ripple CTO.

Following the start of the case,  Jed McCaleb sold a large chunk of his bag. His last sale was worth more than $8 million before he announced he would stop. McCaleb still holds more than 8 billion XRP.

Aside from this selloff, the asset was also saw to other ill-treatments by exchanges as they delisted it from their platform. Taking all these into consideration, the bears speculated a drop to sub-$o.1.

With so much uncertainty in prices, some traders decided to go with the flow of the market. One of the main factors they expected were fundamentals as massive stories had the stage to thrive. Let’s go over some of this news.

Key Events in 2022

The Ripple network started seeing more adoption in January. The largest international commercial bank in Morocco, Attijariwafa Bank, announced it adopted the network to help with its transactions.

Aside from the major implementation of the network, the bulls were grinning as there was speculation as to the end of the legal battle. According to a document shared on Twitter by Ripple’s lawyer, Jeremy Hogan, the blockchain company anticipates that the court case will be concluded between August 26 and November 18, 2022.

More optimism on the case as Ripple CEO said it was going “exceedingly well.” Charles Hoskinson, the co-founder of Cardano, claims that the two-year-long legal dispute between Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States (SEC) may finally be coming to a close and hinted at December 15 as the likely day.

Unfortunately, the twelfth month of the year is coming to an end with no settlement in view. Nonetheless, these fundamentals had a significant effect on prices. Let’s go over some key massive changes in prices over the last 358 days.

Price Rollercoaster

XRP had one of it biggest drops in January as it lost more than 10% on the 21st. A closer look at the daily chart shows that each month, the asset under consideration sees one or two big moves each month.

In February, the seventh day of the month was the most bullish. Although the surge started a day before,  price action on Feb. 7 was almost expected. It opened trading at $0.68 and closed at $0.83. This signified a more than 20% increase.

In March, the coin saw massive volatility, as trading activities were characterized by a 3%-5% move. It also made an attempt at flipping the high for 2022 ($0.92). The next month was mostly bearish as the asset returned to its previous lows.

One of the biggest moves during the 30-day period is a more than 7% drop. May came with even more stricter downtrends as it lost more than 13% on the ninth day. Two days later, it saw a bigger retracement as it lost almost 20%.

The downtrend seem to calm down in June. Nonetheless, XRP lost more than 9% sometime in the first half of the month. July was relatively calm as well but we noticed another massive 9% drop on August 19%.

The biggest surge of the year happened in September as the cryptocurrency opened at $0.39 and closed at $0.48. This signified a more than 22% increase. The next was a little dull with no big moves.

However, this changed in November as we noticed several big moves. A 11% gain greeted investors at the start of the month, which was followed by a cumulative loss of almost 35% over the next two days.

It saw another massive positive change of more 18% as the month went on. December is gradually coming to an end with no big moves.

Unprecedented Moves From Indicators

The first indicator with so much movement is the Relative Strength Index. On several occasions, the metric dipped below 30 which is an indication of the asset being oversold. The first time this happened was in January 21.

XRP became overbought almost fourteen days later. It is safe to say the rate at which the coin lost its value was unprecedented as for this is the first time since 2015 it was oversold five times in less than 365 days.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence is another indicator. We noticed it broke above zero and below very often due to the massive volatility that mostly involved the coin losing key supports.

The main metric long-term traders are interested in are the Moving Averages. The 50-day and the 200-day MAs saw more volatility than usual. For the first since ripple became a tradable asset, it struggled with the effects of a death cross for over eight months.

It also had a golden cross two months ago which reversed a few minutes to the time of writing. These were some grim reminders that the prices didn’t go as many anticipated.

Ripple may end 2022 Down by 50%

XRP opened 2022 on a bearish note as it closed January with losses of more than 25%. It is also safe to conclude that the asset was mostly bearish as eight of the twelve months were red with significant losses.

The year may come to an end the same way it opened. The last two months were marked by consistent downtrends. December is also seeing the same momentum and is down by more than 13%.

XRP closing at the current value means that 2022 ended with losses of 57%, the highest losses in four years.